Hoa Phat Group
Steel & Industrial Materials
Industrial cyclicality model pack with intrinsic value and public-market multiple cross-checks.
DCF
VND 22.3k/share
FCFF DCF, not FCFE or DDM; WACC 10.5%, exit EV/EBITDA 9.0x, sales growth tapering from 14.0% to 4.0%, COGS/sales normalizing to 80.0%, and capex/sales falling to 4.0%.
DCF sits below spot and below comparable value because it penalizes steel-cycle cash-flow volatility and terminal multiple risk.