Weekly Market View: Pre-Tet Rebound Lifts VN-Index Back Above 1,820

Executive Summary

VN-Index rebounded 3.07% in the week ending 13 February, closing at the high of 1,824.09 after opening at 1,769.76. The low at 1,741.37 now stands as the important pre-Tet support level. Liquidity averaged VND 21,860bn/day, enough to confirm the rebound despite the holiday calendar. The tape improved because the market closed at the top of its range, not merely because it bounced.

Foreign-flow data is not available for this week, so no ownership estimate is used. That limits confidence in the rebound. Price action improved, but without foreign-flow confirmation the move should be classified as a technical repair led by domestic demand.

Vietnam Macro Pulse

DXY was nearly flat at 96.88, USD/VND was stable at 25,910, and WTI fell 2.28% to USD 62.89. Macro was friendlier than the prior week. BTC continued to fade, down 1.80%, while gold slipped 0.57%. The absence of FX or oil stress helped local investors buy the dip.

VN-Index: Weekly Review

The index reclaimed 1,800 and closed exactly at the weekly high, a constructive signal after the prior week’s selloff. Support is 1,741.37; resistance is 1,824.09. A post-Tet break above 1,824 would confirm repair; failure there would leave the market trapped in a lower range.

Sector Spotlight

Real Estate led at +14.74%, showing that domestic beta came back quickly once the index stabilized. That is useful but also high beta: property-led rebounds can be powerful, yet they need liquidity confirmation to become durable.

The Week Ahead

The next trading window is distorted by Tet. The clean read is to watch 1,824 after the holiday. A strong reopen above that level would invite a move toward 1,860. A weak reopen below 1,780 would put 1,741 back in play.

Information purpose only - not investment advice. Prepared by Nguyen Vu Truong Huy.