Weekly Market View: Post-Tet Rally Reclaims 1,880 but Foreign Selling Persists

Executive Summary

VN-Index returned from the Tet break with a strong post-holiday rally, closing at 1,880.33, up 2.53% from the 1,833.90 open. The index printed 1,899.44 intrawEEK, effectively retesting the January resistance zone. Liquidity averaged VND 26,512bn/day, enough to validate the post-Tet bid.

Foreign investors were net sellers of VND 2,877.36bn, with VND 10,419.23bn of buy value against VND 13,296.59bn of sell value. That is the central caveat. Price recovered, but offshore flow did not confirm the move.

Vietnam Macro Pulse

DXY slipped 0.09% to 97.61, while USD/VND rose 0.42% to 26,030. BTC rose 1.96%, gold edged higher, and WTI rose to USD 67.02. The macro mix was acceptable but not perfect: risk appetite improved, but FX did not provide a clean tailwind.

VN-Index: Weekly Review

Support is 1,833.90 and resistance is 1,899.44. The close at 1,880.33 puts the index back into the January upper range. A clean close above 1,900 would restore the bull case. Rejection below 1,900 would warn that the market is building a double-top structure.

Sector Spotlight

Steel led at +4.73%, a constructive cyclical signal. Steel leadership usually reflects confidence in industrial demand, infrastructure expectations, or margin repair. The issue is that foreign selling remained negative, so domestic accounts were still carrying the move.

The Week Ahead

March starts with the index close to a major decision point. Bull case: break 1,900 and broaden into banks/securities. Base case: range trade between 1,834 and 1,900. Bear case: foreign selling overwhelms domestic demand and pulls the index back below 1,834.

Information purpose only - not investment advice. Prepared by Nguyen Vu Truong Huy.