HPG
Steel & Industrial Materials · DCF · Comparable Analysis
Hoa Phat Group
HPG valuation deliberately separates intrinsic steel-cycle risk from public-market normalized earnings.
DCF
22.3k
−5.7%
DCF: 18.4k to 26.5k, base case 22.3k; −5.7% versus 23.6kComparable
25.5k–25.9k
+8.9%
Comparable: 25.5k to 25.9k; +8.9% versus 23.6kOutputs, VND per share
| DCF | 22.3k | −5.7% |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable | 25.5k–25.9k | +8.9% |
| Price used | 23.6k | 11 Jun 2026 |
Is the market pricing HPG as a normalized steel-cycle recovery story, or should cash-flow risk keep the valuation discounted?
Key assumptions
- Revenue growth path
- 14.0% to 4.0%
- COGS/sales normalization
- 80.0%
- Capex/sales
- Falls to 4.0%
- WACC
- 10.5%
- Exit EV/EBITDA
- 9.0x
Conclusion
HPG should be read as a valuation range, not a single target price. DCF is the conservative intrinsic anchor; comparable analysis is the market-implied normalized earnings case.
Key risks
- 1 Steel spread compression or slower utilization would pressure the DCF fastest.
- 2 Lower capex or stronger working-capital release would lift free cash flow and narrow the gap between DCF and comparable value.
- 3 Comparable value can move quickly if the peer multiple set derates with China steel demand or Vietnam property sentiment.