Hoa Phat Group (HPG): FCFF Valuation — Trough Cycle Pricing

Methodology

5-year explicit forecast (FY2026–FY2030) with terminal value via Gordon Growth. FCFF discounted at WACC of 11.2% (cost of equity 13.5% via CAPM, target D/E 0.4×).

Key Assumptions

• Steel segment volume CAGR: 6% base / 3% bear / 9% bull
• EBITDA margin normalization to 14–16% by FY2028 as HRC spreads recover
• Capex step-down post Dung Quat Phase 2 completion (FY2027)

Scenario Summary

Scenario	Fair Value (VND)	vs. Spot
Bear	24,500	-6%
Base	32,000	+28%
Bull	41,000	+56%

As of May 15, 2026. Academic exercise — not investment advice.