Weekly Market View: Holiday-Shortened Tape Holds 1,850 Despite WTI Rebound

Executive Summary

VN-Index closed the holiday-shortened week at 1,854.10, up only 0.22% from the 1,850.07 open. The range was narrow relative to April’s rally: 1,840.58 low and 1,887.69 high. Average daily liquidity averaged VND 18,928bn/day, lower than the prior April recovery weeks, which is consistent with the holiday calendar.

Foreign investors were net sellers of VND 1,879.65bn, with VND 5,452.98bn of buy value against VND 7,332.62bn of sell value. The market held up, but the ownership read remained soft.

Vietnam Macro Pulse

DXY eased 0.27% to 98.21 and USD/VND was almost flat at 26,355. BTC rose 1.05%, gold fell 0.97%, but WTI jumped 5.78% to USD 101.94. Oil was the main macro variable. Above USD 100, WTI keeps inflation and margin pressure in the conversation even if FX is stable.

VN-Index: Weekly Review

Support is 1,840.58 and resistance is 1,887.69. The close at 1,854.10 says the market paused after April’s strong repair rather than fully reversing. A break of 1,840 would be the first sign that the April rally is fading; a reclaim of 1,888 would restart the upside test.

Sector Spotlight

Real Estate led at +3.40%, showing domestic beta was still alive. But the lower liquidity and foreign selling mean the move needs confirmation. A real-estate led market can move quickly, but it is also sensitive to financing headlines and margin appetite.

The Week Ahead

The first full May week needs to answer whether April’s rally can continue. Bull case: reclaim 1,888 and push toward 1,920. Base case: consolidate above 1,840. Bear case: WTI pressure plus foreign selling breaks support.

Information purpose only - not investment advice. Prepared by Nguyen Vu Truong Huy.